Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#187
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#215
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 7.4% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 28.4% 44.0% 21.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 48.4% 32.9%
Conference Champion 4.7% 7.2% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 20.0% 13.2% 22.9%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round4.9% 7.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 86 - 14
Quad 46 - 311 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 80   Belmont L 72-78 30%    
  Nov 10, 2019 220   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-69 66%    
  Nov 17, 2019 94   Central Florida L 64-67 37%    
  Nov 22, 2019 29   Cincinnati L 58-72 10%    
  Dec 03, 2019 68   @ TCU L 64-77 12%    
  Dec 07, 2019 264   Morehead St. W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 15, 2019 133   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 18, 2019 131   Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 21, 2019 121   @ Texas San Antonio L 72-80 25%    
  Dec 31, 2019 114   Northern Iowa L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 04, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 07, 2020 125   Missouri St. L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 11, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 15, 2020 145   @ Drake L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 19, 2020 109   Loyola Chicago L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 22, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 62-68 29%    
  Jan 25, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 68-64 62%    
  Jan 29, 2020 182   Evansville W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 01, 2020 199   @ Valparaiso L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 05, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 08, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 12, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 60-69 24%    
  Feb 15, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 19, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 57-66 23%    
  Feb 22, 2020 145   Drake W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 26, 2020 136   Bradley L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 29, 2020 182   @ Evansville L 68-71 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.8 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.2 5.2 2.7 0.4 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 4.9 2.2 0.4 13.7 9th
10th 0.6 1.8 3.3 3.8 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.8 10th
Total 0.6 1.8 3.6 5.9 7.6 9.8 10.7 11.1 11.3 9.7 8.6 7.0 4.9 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 98.5% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 84.9% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 61.8% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 33.9% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 96.2% 38.5% 57.7% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.8%
17-1 0.2% 55.1% 38.3% 16.8% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 27.3%
16-2 0.6% 51.0% 42.9% 8.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14.1%
15-3 0.9% 32.6% 29.3% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 4.6%
14-4 2.0% 26.7% 24.8% 2.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.6%
13-5 3.6% 19.5% 19.3% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.3%
12-6 4.9% 15.4% 15.3% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 0.0%
11-7 7.0% 9.3% 9.3% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.4
10-8 8.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.0
9-9 9.7% 4.8% 4.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.2
8-10 11.3% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.0
7-11 11.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
5-13 9.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
4-14 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 5.1% 4.9% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 95.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%